Warner Bros Shakes Up the Industry by Sending 2021 Slate to Streaming

Just days ago, WarnerMedia may have changed the future of moviegoing forever by smashing theatrical windows completely for the year of 2021 and releasing all of their films directly to streaming as well as to theaters on the day of release. Warner Bros had already announced a similar plan with their giant tentpole Wonder Woman 1984, which is coming to HBO Max and releasing to theaters on Christmas day. With this announcement, not only is the company shattering theatrical windows, but they are setting a historical precedent by putting what-would-be-considered blockbuster releases right onto our televisions at home free of extra charge if you already have a subscription to the streaming service. It will be hard to put the genie back into the bottle after this move, as people will start to come to expect blockbusters from studios and streaming services in our homes even if they try to reverse the decision.  Movies such as Matrix 4, Suicide Squad, Godzilla v Kong, and Dune will be released to HBO Max and theaters on the day of release. In an ordinary, non-pandemic world, these films would have been runaway hits, as they are highly anticipated, with a pre-existing fanbase. However, WarnerMedia claims that this is an isolated, one-year long experiment in response to the pandemic.

With this unique one-year plan, we can support our partners in exhibition with a steady pipeline of world-class films, while also giving moviegoers who may not have access to theaters or aren’t quite ready to go back to the movies the chance to see our amazing 2021 films. We see it as a win-win for film lovers and exhibitors, and we’re extremely grateful to our filmmaking partners for working with us on this innovative response to these circumstances.

Firstly, is this really temporary?  I do not see such a drastic step as just a temporary “one-year plan.”  At the moment, the HBO Max platform is struggling against their competitors with only 12 million active members.  One could say that the platform is struggling against its competitors so much because it is only available in the United States, or it is not available on all devices. Or even the awful marketing campaign behind the streaming service. Do I have HBO, HBO Go, or HBOMax?  And what is it? Either way, their platform is performing much more poorly than they have expected. This announcement reads as a desperate attempt to revitalize their platform, because Warner most likely sees that as their future, for better or worse. Especially since two of their biggest tentpoles, Dune and The Matrix 4, arrive in the fourth quarter, long after vaccines would be distributed and theaters may be safe. At the very least, they would have waited and announced each film on a month-by-month basis if they were determined to return to the theatrical experience.  

Secondly, is this the win-win-win that Warner is talking about? Well, no, of course not. Since this news broke, a lot of drama and tension have sparked between Warner and their partners.  Among those upset are Legendary Studios, who financed 75% of Dune and Godzilla v Kong.  Apparently, the studio was completely blindsided by the whole new distribution shakeup, as were Denis Villeneuve and the stars. Those who worked on these films took less money upfront to reduce production costs, hoping for back-end paydays if it was successful, but now there is no box office. Not only that, but Legendary was hoping that if Dune was successful in theaters, it would launch a franchise. Villeneuve explained in a letter to Variety,

“Warner Bros.’ decision means “Dune” won’t have the chance to perform financially in order to be viable and piracy will ultimately triumph. Warner Bros. might just have killed the “Dune” franchise. This one is for the fans. AT&T’s John Stankey said that the streaming horse left the barn. In truth, the horse left the barn for the slaughterhouse.”

As of right now, Legendary Pictures has sent legal letters challenging WarnerMedia’s decision to send their films to streaming.

They are far from the only ones. Christopher Nolan, who has been a longtime partner of Warner Bros. since his 2002 film Insomnia, said to THR,

“Some of our industry’s biggest filmmakers and most important movie stars went to bed the night before thinking they were working for the greatest movie studio and woke up to find out they were working for the worst streaming service."

Also, Denis Villeneuve, continued in his letter in Variety, slamming WarnerMedia’s decision.

“There is absolutely no love for cinema, nor for the audience here. It is all about the survival of a telecom mammoth, one that is currently bearing an astronomical debt of more than $150 billion. Therefore, even though Dune is about cinema and audiences, AT&T is about its own survival on Wall Street”.

Also, according to The Playlist, directors and actors are not the only ones infuriated. Even the guilds who represent the talent, such as the Director’s Guild of America, are looking into a possible boycott of WarnerMedia due to this move.  If true, then by making such a big decision without consulting any of their creatives or partners, it seems that they have burned many bridges and people might stop working with them.

Then what does this mean for the future of movies? Well, in this day and age, it is hard to imagine further than a few months in the future. However, if I had to guess, this plan is unsustainable. Warner’s 2021 slate alone counts for $1 billion in production spending, which they are going to have to try to recoup entirely on subscribers. It has been proven time and time again that streaming films do not earn that much money, either because multiple people share one account, they sign up and cancel, or, more likely, piracy. The movies that we have gotten this year weren’t runaway hits either, not compared to any normal week at the box office. Either way, it might be cool right now to say theaters are dying and streaming is the future, but theaters are the only place where you can profit from the movies. We see companies radically shifting their focus here now because it seems hip, but long-term, I cannot see streaming sustaining this industry.