The 95th Academy Awards Predictions And Musings

TV & Film

Mar 12

Jimmy Kimmel hosts 95th Academy Awards — Image Source: TV Insider

Well, the 95th Academy Awards are here, and people couldn’t be more excited. I mean, who wouldn’t want to watch a bunch of celebrities give each other awards for movies almost nobody has heard of or seen in a three-hour-plus ceremony punctuated by unfunny jokes and eye-rolling political commentary from our “social betters?” We all know that the Oscars have become sort of a joke as of late. What used to be a ceremony honoring the best movies of the year has turned into boring nonsense. Sometimes a film or a performer will win an Oscar and it is really nice to see something of that quality actually be recognized, but that hasn’t happened lately. However, in a change from the last several years (giving some leeway to the COVID-19 years) the movies nominated for Best Picture actually have some box office numbers behind them with Avatar: The Way of Water and Top Gun: Maverick each grossing over a billion dollars to go along with Elvis, which grossed around $250 million and Everything, Everywhere, All at Once, which made over $100 million. So hey, people have actually seen a few of these this time.

Things have to really turn around with the ceremony for people to watch it next year. It is highly unlikely that they’ll get an uptick in viewership this year, but if they do everything right, maybe they’ll get a few more cautiously optimistic people watching next year. Doubtful, but maybe host Jimmy Kimmel has something up his sleeve, and we’ll get a memorable Oscar ceremony. For all of the right reasons this time.

Will Smith slaps Chris Rock at the 94th Academy Awards — Image Source: Los Angeles Times

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But hey, it’s not likely. If the Oscars get ten thousand people watching instead of the tens if not hundreds of millions that they’re hoping for, then maybe in a few years they’ll realize that the unfunny, political bore that they’ve become isn’t a winning strategy, and they’ll try something else. We can only hope.

Until that fictional day comes, we have this year’s awards. Who’s going to win? Why? Well, nobody knows for sure (do they, La La Land?) but here are the predictions.

Best Picture:

All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking

The most coveted of all movie awards. The momentum for Best Picture has gone to Everything Everywhere All at Once. It’s not a typical “Oscar” film in that it was made to score wins, which makes it an oddity. The directors seemed to have just wanted to make the best film that they could, and the Oscar buzz naturally followed. The only real competitor is Netflix’s All Quiet on the Western Front. However, as good as that film is (while still being inferior to its Best Picture-winning 1930 original) it will probably get dinged because the Oscars don’t like giving big awards to movies from streaming services. On the other hand, CODA took home the Best Picture prize last year, so you never know. The Fablemans is a cinematic love letter from legendary director Steven Spielberg, but it’s not getting buzz for actually winning. Top Gun: Maverick was getting a bit of buzz at one point, but that has died down. Elvis is a popular film, as is Avatar, but still, nobody has taken home the top prize. If anyone is going to have an upset win, it would probably be The Banshees of Inisherin, which also has nominations in other high categories. However, it probably won’t be enough.

Projected winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Director:

Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
Todd Field (Tár)
Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness)

This is another category where the buzz shows a clear winner or winners in this case. Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (colloquially referred to as “The Daniels” have been running away with this one. Plus, Best Director and Best Picture tend to be tied together closely, so there is a good indication that Everything Everywhere All at once will take home the two top prizes. Spielberg is a beloved director, but he has already won twice. Martin McDonagh and he are the only potential upset winners here. Right now, though, the Daniels seem to have this one locked up.

Projected Winner: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert

Best Actor

Austin Butler (Elvis)
Colin Farell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
Paul Mescal (Aftersun)
Bill Nighy (Living)

Now we’re at a category that’s much, much harder to peg. Most of the initial momentum went Brendan Fraser’s way, but Austin Butler and Colin Farell have been gaining steam. Fraser is the best story, having been blackballed by the movie industry for years before making a triumphant comeback in The Whale. However, Austin Butler is the lead in a biopic, and a musical one at that. The Oscars love rewarding that kind of performance, and he won the Screen Actors Guild award for it as well. Colin Farell has received his own fair share of attention. It all comes down to the three of them, and it is hard to peg who is going to take home the award. The only chance Mescal and Nighy have are if the previous three split the vote enough that one of them can take it. See the 1950 Best Actress race for another example of this.

Projected Winner: Brendan Frasier

Best Actress:

Cate Blanchett (Tár)
Ana de Armas (Blonde)
Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie)
Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

This one is coming down to Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh. Nobody has heard of To Leslie. Blonde actually won Worst Picture at the Razzie awards (honoring the worst movies of the year), and Williams is getting little to no buzz. No, it’s going to be Blanchett or Yeoh. Yeoh scores some points for being a Hollywood legend who hasn’t gotten much recognition up to this point, and she also stars in the probable Best Picture winner. Blanchett gives a powerful performance, but she’s in a much smaller film, and she has already won two Oscars (The Aviator and Blue Jasmine), which really puts her at a disadvantage. In terms of buzz, the two are pretty much neck and neck, but Yeoh probably has a few more points in her favor

Projected Winner: Michelle Yeoh

Best Supporting Actor:

Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway)
Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

It’s going to be Ke Huy Quan. The ceremony is pretty much just a formality at this point. Brendan Gleeson is the only possible upset win, but Quan has picked up pretty much all of the precursor awards.

Projected Winner: Key Huy Quan

Best Supporting Actress:

Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Hong Chau (The Whale)
Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

This is another award that’s actually really hard to call. It comes down to Angela Bassett and Jamie Lee Curtis. Bassett had the most initial momentum going into the awards season, but Curtis has recently made some major strides of her own. She’s the daughter of two Hollywood legends (Janet Leigh and Tony Curtis), neither of whom won Oscars of their own, so that could play into it. Plus, once again, she is in this year’s Best Picture frontrunner. To top it off, she won the Screen Actors Guild award, and those tend to tie in pretty close with how the acting Oscars are going to play out. On the other hand, Basset did take home the Golden Globe, and that is usually a pretty good indicator as well. If either woman had won both awards, we would have a clear answer. Because they split, it is difficult to say. Bassett has a bit of a potential ding in that she’s in a Marvel superhero movie, and they don’t do well in the big categories. Honestly, though, it’s a bit of a coin flip.

Projected Winner: Jamie Lee Curtis

Best Adapted Screenplay

All Quiet on the Western Front - Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, Ian Stokell
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery - Rian Johnson
Living - Kazuo Ishiguro
Top Gun: Maverick - Screenplay by Ehren Kruger and Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie; Story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks
Women Talking - Sarah Polley

Best Original Screenplay

The Banshees of Inisherin - Martin McDonagh
Everything Everywhere All at Once - Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert
The Fabelmans - Steven Spielberg, Tony Kushner
Tár - Todd Field
Triangle of Sadness - Ruben Östlund

Best Animated Film

Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red

Best Cinematography

All Quiet on the Western Front
Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
Elvis
Empire of Light
Tár

Best Film Editing

The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick

Best Original Score

All Quiet on the Western Front

Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans

Best Original Song

"Applause" from Tell It Like a Woman (Music and Lyric by Diane Warren)
"Hold My Hand" from Top Gun: Maverick (Music and Lyric by Lady Gaga and BloodPop)
"Lift Me Up" from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Music by Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler and Ludwig Goransson; Lyric by Tems and Ryan Coogler)
"Naatu Naatu" from RRR (Music by M.M. Keeravaani; Lyric by Chandrabose)
"This is a Life" from Everything Everywhere All at Once (Music by Ryan Lott, David Byrne and Mitski; Lyric by Ryan Lott and David Byrne)