The Oscar Nominations: Initial Thoughts
The Academy Award (more commonly known as the Oscars) nominations were recently released, and there weren't a ton of surprises. I previously gave my thoughts on the direction that they could go in my article about the Golden Globes, so it's interesting to see what I got right, what I got wrong, and if there are actually any surprises both in nominations, and who we might see as winners come April 25th. First, of course, these are the nominees.
BEST PICTURE
The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
This is a category where there probably won't be any major surprises. Nomadland has been taking the awards circuit by storm, and its subject matter (a woman traveling around after losing everything in the Great Recession of 2008) hits harder in a world where the economy was turned upside-down as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. The only film that might have a shot at upsetting it is Mank, a film about the legendary screenwriter Herman J. Mankiewicz and his struggles in finishing the script for Citizen Kane, a movie widely considered to be the best of all time. Hollywood loves movies about itself (an example being the forgettable, gimmicky The Artist that nabbed Best Picture in 2011) and Citizen Kane didn't end up winning Best Picture, so some voters might see giving Best Picture to Mank as a sort of retroactive acknowledgement of Citizen Kane. However, that is unlikely, and we will most likely see Nomadland added to the hallowed pantheon of Best Picture winners.
My pick: Nomadland
DIRECTOR
Thomas Vinterberg, Another Round
David Fincher, Mank
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
There shouldn't be a huge shock here, either. Chloe Zhao has been cleaning up, and her Golden Globe win pretty much solidifies it. Like with Best Picture, David Fincher might take it for Mank, both for the aforementioned reasons in the Best Picture analysis, but because Fincher might be seen as "due." The Oscars have a long history of giving awards to people who haven't won yet, but have been nominated multiple times. For example, Geraldine Page won Best Actress in 1985 for A Trip to Bountiful over Whoopi Goldberg's transcendent performance in The Color Purple because Page had been nominated several times already, and it was "her time." The Academy might use similar logic here with Fincher, who has been nominated for Best Director twice already, not including his nomination this year.
Although, and I'm just gonna say it in the full interest of a deep analysis here, the Academy can be a tad... political. Chloe Zhao is the first Chinese woman (and only the sixth woman overall) to be nominated for Best Director. The Oscars have been accused of only giving awards to white people, and with the current political climate, this is definitely hers to lose. This is an easy pick.
My pick: Chloe Zhao
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank
Steven Yeun, Minari
Gary Oldman and Anthony Hopkins already have their Oscars, and the Academy doesn't like giving people multiple Oscars in the acting categories (unless you're Katherine Hepburn or Daniel Day-Lewis), so it's a safe bet that they're not picking up another trophy. Riz Ahmed is the first Muslim to be nominated for an Oscar, but the lock here is definitely Chadwick Boseman. People have been saying that he's been locked in for the win ever since his tragic death from cancer. Whether or not he deserves it is up for some debate (some people think that Anthony Hopkins' performance in The Father is his best since his Oscar-winning performance in The Silence of the Lambs), but Boseman is the easy choice. He would be the third actor to win an Oscar after his death.
Though, interestingly enough, he'd be the only non-Australian to do it.
My pick: Chadwick Boseman
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
This one is actually a bit harder to pick. Andra Day won the Golden Globes, which is a big advantage here, but Carey Mulligan has been gaining steam. Mulligan has an advantage in that she's already been nominated. However, a big advantage Day has is that she's playing a real person, in this instance, the titular Billie Holiday. The Academy is a big fan of performances portraying real people (Jamie Foxx in Ray, Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln, Charlize Theron in Monster and many, many, many more) so that might push her over. The race is between the two of them. Will the Academy award an actress who has already been nominated and might be seen as "due" or will they chose the Golden Globe winner who is playing a historical figure?
Maybe neither. Viola Davis, who already has a win, won the Screen Actors Guild award for her performance, and that is a high indicator of who will win, given that it's essentially the same voters. Maybe the three of them split the vote, and someone else picks it up. Unlikely, but technically possible.
My pick: Carey Mulligan
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
This one is pretty locked up as well. Daniel Kaluuya (best known for Get Out, one of the best horror films of all time and the true best picture of 2017 instead of the meh The Shape of Water) has been gaining steam, and when the winners are discussed, his is always the name that comes up first. He might split votes with fellow Get Out alum Lakeith Stanfield, allowing someone else to win. The Academy loves it when a comedic actor takes a serious turn, and often reward that (e.g. Robin Williams in Good Will Hunting) so Sasha Baron Cohen might have a shot, however unlikely. Stranger things have happened. It's still Kaluuya's to lose.
My pick: Daniel Kaluuya
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Youn Yuh-jung, Minari
Amanda Seyfried was an early darling for this award, but then Youn Yuh-Jung won the SAG award, which puts her at the front of the pack. Glenn Close has been nominated eight times now, but she's not going to win for a role in which she was also nominated for a Razzie for Worst Supporting Actress. Olivia Colman won her Oscar for the deserving Best Picture in 2019, The Favourite. Maria Bakalova has some buzz, but it's highly unlikely. Based on the momentum, it looks like it's Yuh-jung.
My pick: Youn Yuh-jung
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Onward
Over the Moon
A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
Soul
Wolfwalkers
It's going to be Soul. No need for further discussion.
...
Okay, we can have some more discussion. Onward was a meh Pixar film that had some cute moments but was ultimately not up to the studio's astronomical standards. Soul isn't a film on the level of Ratatouille, Wall-E, Up, or the Toy Story series, but it's still an excellent film. The only one that has a shot at dethroning it is the usual artsy animated film that always gets nominated, Wolfwalkers. A fraction of the people who saw Soul saw that film, so this is probably an easier pick than even Best Picture.
My pick: Soul
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Judas and the Black Messiah
Minari
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Promising Young Woman has the momentum here, and its timely themes will likely sway Academy voters. The other four nominees were all nominated for Best Picture as well, but none of them have the momentum. The only ones that could possibly challenge it are Judas and Chicago 7. Unlikely.
My pick: Promising Young Woman
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Borat Subsequent MovieFilm
The Father
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
The White Tiger
The White Tiger wasn't nominated for anything else, so it won't win. Miami's only other nomination was for Original Song, so it doesn't have the big guns behind it of a larger award such as Best Picture. Borat just isn't the kind of movie that wins an award like this. Nomadland continues its streak here and nabs the Oscar. The Father is the only possible dark horse here, but this one is an easy pick.
My pick: Nomadland
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Another Round--Denmark
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Joshua James Richards, Nomadland
COSTUME DESIGN
Ma Rainey's Blackbottom
ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND
Sound of Metal
ANIMATED SHORT FILM
If Anything Happens I Love You
LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
The Letter Room
ORIGINAL SCORE
Soul
VISUAL EFFECTS
Tenet
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Erik Messerschmidt, Nomadland
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Time
DOCUMENTARY (SHORT)
A Concerto Is a Conversation
ORIGINAL SONG
Speak Now" from "One Night in Miami
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Mank
So there. Copy me for your office Oscar pools, if that kind of thing still exists. I might change my predictions as we get closer to the ceremony, but this is a good start.
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